|
Highlights from The Globe & Mail Oct 1 2010 article by Chrystia Freedland: Emerging Markets Beginning to Bypass the West As much of the developed world is struggling with weak consumer demand and stubbornly high levels of unemployment, the emerging-market countries are writing a new chapter in the story of the global economy. The new motto of the moneymen, as one Manhattan banker put it to me this week, is “Mumbai, Dubai, Shanghai or goodbye.” Stephen Jennings, the 50-year-old New Zealander who receives visitors here, is betting on a world that bypasses the West altogether. “In many emerging markets and in an increasing number of industries, the market leaders have local roots. The largest metals group in the world is Indian. The largest aluminum group in the world is Russian ... The fastest-growing and largest banks in China, Russia and Nigeria are all domestic.” It would be wrong, of course, to count the West out. Multinational behemoths such as GE, Coca-Cola and HSBC have been quick to understand the opportunity emerging markets represent and are agile in adapting to local conditions. The reliability and the reputation of these global brands can make them appealing partners for even the most aggressive emerging-market entrepreneurs. And when it comes to paradigm-shifting innovation, Western companies such Apple and Facebook are still setting the international agenda. In fact, it may be Western politicians rather than Western CEOs who will be blindsided by the coming wave of globalization. Lacklustre economic growth and persistent unemployment are fuelling protectionist sentiment in many developed countries, especially the United States. At a time when emerging-market countries and companies are getting better and better at doing business with one another, that impulse may not only be self-destructive. Even worse, it could be futile. What's the significance of all this? Basically North America and Western Europe are declining in power and influence because of the financial crisis, and our aging populations. Other parts of the world are in a different phase altogether, with "baby boom" demographics and emerging middle classes.
If we don't get there, they are not going to wait for us.
|